No Luck Needed for Lookin At Lucky

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/17/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2010 Preakness was extremely reminiscent to the 1997 edition when three horses, including Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm, finished a quarter-of-a-length apart. In fact, Touch Gold was only 1 1/2-lengths behind in fourth after stumbling at the start.

This Saturday's race saw four horses within one length of each other with less than a sixteenth of a mile to run. Lookin At Lucky, the 2-1 second choice, battled with three double-digit longshots - First Dude, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist.

Lookin At Lucky, who led for most of the stretch run, finally prevailed by three-quarters of a length over First Dude handing those that bet the 7-11 exacta a $188.60 reward for every $2 wagered.

Jackson Bend finished a head back in third and a full length in front of Yawanna Twist, who rounded out a $2 superfecta worth $34,252.

There were many exceptional performances in the race, but the one major disappointment came from the Kentucky Derby winner.

Super Saver finished a lackluster eighth (beaten almost a dozen lengths) just two weeks after his triumphant victory in the Derby. Before the Preakness, his trainer Todd Pletcher was extremely worried about the quick two-week turnaround and he was dead on as Super Saver looked like a badly conditioned three-year-old.

The son of Maria's Mon faltered badly after chasing front-runner First Dude for the first six furlongs. One can argue that jockey Calvin Borel placed him too close to the quick pace. but that claim holds zero water as the front running First Dude wound up running second, beaten less than a length.

Despite the failure of the Derby winner, the main storyline of the Preakness was Lookin At Lucky and his rider, Martin Garcia.

The 25-year-old jockey, who replaced future hall-of-famer Garrett Gomez, rode a flawless race keeping Lookin At Lucky on the outside, free from trouble, for the entire run down the backstretch. It was the antithesis of the colt's three previous races under Gomez.

Lookin At Lucky and Garcia then took the lead at the head of the stretch and held off all challengers to win by three-quarters of a length and give trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Preakness victory.

AN EARLY LOOK AT THE BELMONT

Unfortunately, those expecting Lookin At Lucky to move forward to the Belmont Stakes will be sadly disappointed. Baffert stated early Sunday morning that the Preakness winner will head back home to California and not attempt to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. Kentucky Derby champion Super Saver will also not race in the Belmont leaving the race without the Derby and Preakness winners for the first time since 2006.

That means Derby runner-up Ice Box will be the early favorite in the Test of Champions. His trainer Nick Zito will also have the probable second choice in Fly Down, the recent winner of the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park. Furthermore, there's a chance Zito could send Jackson Bend as well since the gritty colt ran huge at Pimlico.

The 12th-place Derby finisher rebounded with a bang-up third in the Preakness, failing to nail down the second spot by a diminishing head. It might be asking lot for him to go the 12 furlongs of the Belmont after a grueling spring campaign but there won't be much speed in the race and his presence could help Zito's two closers even more.

Speaking of the expected lack of pace in the Belmont, First Dude has a great chance of going gate-to-wire, especially if Jackson Bend stays in his barn on the first Saturday in June.

First Dude ran his heart out in the Preakness, battling back on the inside to finish second after setting a quick pace on the front end. Trainer Dale Romans had the son of Stephen Got Even in great shape all week long and was extremely confident in the colt's chances despite the high odds.

Yawanna Twist will not be moving forward to the Belmont Stakes, but the Rick Dutrow-trained three-year-old almost pulled off the upset with a bold rally through the stretch. In the end, he failed to pick up any ground inside the final 10 jumps, settling for fourth-place money.

The only other Preakness runner that might go in the Belmont Stakes is Dublin.

Ridden for the first time by Garrett Gomez, the son of 2005 Belmont winner Afleet Alex, got off to a miserable beginning breaking from post 12.

In last place for most of the race, Dublin closed well to finish fifth, beaten only six lengths. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has a history of racing his three- year-olds through tough campaigns so it wouldn't come as a shock to see Dublin in the Belmont Stakes.

Other possible starters include stout closers such as Setsuko, Stay Put, Stately Victor and Make Music for Me, as well as a pair of stalkers in Uptowncharlybrown, Game On Dude and Drosselmeyer.

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MySportsbook.com and Kentucky Derby Offer Bonuses
The 2008 Kentucky Derby has announced a $1-million bonus for this weekend’s 134th ‘Run for the Roses’ and MySportsbook.com is doing the same.

Well, not quite $1 million, but MySportsbook.com is offering a 75% rebate for Kentucky Derby lines. Check out the exclusive horse racing bonus for all the details.

According to MySportsbook.com, the favorites for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky are: Curlin (+250); Street Sense (+500); Scat Daddy (+700); Circular Quay (+750); and Nobiz Like Shobiz (+800).

Derby organizers announced this week that there will be a $1-million bonus at the 2007 Kentucky Derby odds if the first-place horse wins by more than 6 1/2 lengths – the margin of Barbaro's victory last year. The bonus would be divided Saturday among the winning trainer, jockey, owner and a charity, with each receiving 25 percent. The designated charity is the Barbaro Memorial Fund.

''It's certainly creative, it's certainly fun and it has something for the horsemen, which we always want to embrace,'' Churchill Downs president and chief executive Robert Evans said at a news conference. ''What's really cool is it will force us to remember Barbaro.''
    
Meanwhile, the Derby favorite – Curlin – is going against the odds this year. It's been 125 years since Apollo won after skipping his 2-year-old season, and not since Regret in 1915 has such a lightly seasoned horse worn the blanket of red roses.

Arkansas Derby winner Curlin – unbeaten in three career races – tries to overcome both those obstacles in Saturday's 133rd Derby.

''We're not running against history,'' trainer Steve Asmussen said Monday. ''We're running against who they load up.''

Six other horses have run in the Derby without benefit of 2-year-old races and with three or fewer starts. The best any of them managed was a sixth-place finish by Showing Up last year.
   
Asmussen dismissed suggestions that Curlin's lack of racing experience could keep him from the winner's circle.

”He exudes confidence and he's got a great presence about him,'' the trainer said. ''I feel great about the position we're in. He's not worried about anything, why should you be?''
   
The Kentucky Derby is at 4:04 p.m., ET Saturday.

For complete odds on the Kentucky Derby, visit MySportsbook.com. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.


Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.