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07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two weeks after the Texas Rangers acquired the marquee pitcher in this year's trade market, Angels general manager Tony Reagins answered the bell on Sunday by acquiring the other top pitcher.
By trading Joe Saunders and a trio of prospects to Arizona in exchange for three-time All-Star Dan Haren, Reagins sent a message that the Angels are not willing to go quietly into the night. Right away, Haren will join Jered Weaver atop the rotation to give the Halos a very formidable one-two punch.
There is no disputing that Los Angeles is a better ballclub with Dan Haren. In Haren, L.A. gets a guy who has regularly logged 200-plus inning seasons since 2005, and who left Arizona as the NL leader with 141 strikeouts and only 29 walks. Weaver leads all Major League pitchers with 147 punchouts. But the real question is, how much better are the Angels? And is the addition of Haren enough to close the 7 1/2-game gap separating the Angels and the first-place Rangers?
To his credit, Reagins did acquire third baseman Alberto Callaspo from the Kansas City Royals last Thursday. However, while Haren does rank among the elite pitchers in the game, the fact remains he was 7-8 with a 4.60 ERA upon joining his new team, and he has given up 23 home runs on the year. And, on the same day they acquired their new starter, the Angels dropped a 6-4 decision at Rangers Ballpark. Texas took three of four in the head-to-head series to widen the margin between the division rivals. The Angels have lost six of nine meetings this season. Still, they are not conceding anything just yet.
"We still have a lot of games left against each other," Hideki Matsui said. "It's too early to quit now."
Contract-wise, Haren is locked up through 2012 with an option for 2013. His yearly salary will bump up from $8.25 million this year, to $12.75 million each of the next two seasons. His 2013 option is for $15.5 million and comes with a $3.5 million buyout.
Talent-wise, Reagins said he sees Haren as being on Lee's level.
"I would say he has that potential," Reagins said. "Cliff is obviously a dominant pitcher. Dan Haren is a dominant pitcher. We're not expecting him to be the guy. We're expecting him to do what he does -- give us quality innings and help us accomplish our goal."
Haren made his first start as an Angel Monday night against Boston, but left in the fifth inning after being hit in the right forearm by a line drive from Kevin Youkilis. After the game Haren said he was a little sore but he wasn't worried about the injury. In the meantime, the Angels will hold their breath until Tuesday's X-ray results come back. Before leaving, Haren racked up eight strikeouts and no walks in 4 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on seven hits.
In any case, to truly accomplish their goal of surpassing the Rangers, the Angels will need more than just Dan Haren. Specifically, they haven't found a replacement for injured first baseman Kendry Morales and his run production. And the bullpen has allowed a league-high 45 percent of its inherited runners to score.
If Reagins has proved anything in recent seasons, it's that he's not afraid to wheel and deal to improve his ballclub at the trade deadline (see Mark Teixeira, Scott Kazmir). With Saturday's trade deadline fast approaching, Reagins has said he will continue to keep an eye out for other opportunities.
A'S KEEPING PACE
While they aren't exactly nipping at the heels of the Texas Rangers, the Oakland Athletics have gotten hot enough lately to remain very much in the conversation for the AL West title. Winners of nine of their last 11, the A's (50-48) entered Tuesday tied with the Angels for second place in the division.
Beginning Tuesday night in Arlington, they'll have a shot to narrow the gap a bit more as they take on the Rangers in a three-game series. They'll meet up again in Oakland during the first week of August.
"It's just another series, but at this stage, every series is a big series," A's manager Bob Geren said of the upcoming schedule. "We'll see them again at home soon, so those are six big games right there."
Standing in Oakland's way in the series opener Tuesday night is newly-acquired ace Cliff Lee, who is coming off his first win as a Ranger. He'll oppose A's starter Gio Gonzalez, who has won three of his last four starts.
Meanwhile, All-Star closer Andrew Bailey is expected to be available Tuesday night. Bailey (1-3, 1.56 ERA, 20 saves) has not pitched for a week because of an upper back strain. In addition, outfielder Rajai Davis may return after missing three straight games with a strained hamstring. Davis and Bailey both benefited from the team's off day Monday. Starting pitcher Brett Anderson made what is expected to be his final rehab start for Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday. He could rejoin the rotation August 2 against Kansas City.
The A's will need all hands on deck, as 12 of their next 15 games come against teams that are currently in first place.
BIG STRETCH AHEAD FOR RANGERS
Already with a 7 1/2-game cushion in the AL West, the Texas Rangers can expand that margin the old-fashioned way, with some head-to-head matchups against the very teams that are chasing them.
Beginning with this past weekend's series against L.A., Texas plays 16 straight games versus division opponents. On the season, the Rangers are 17-8 against division foes, and nearly half of their final 67 games will be played against the AL West.
Manager Ron Washington said he was happy to take three of four from the Angels, but conceded there are still a lot of games left to be played. Starting pitcher Tommy Hunter, who has set a team record by winning his first eight games to start the season, said he feels pretty good about his team's chances. While the Rangers are most renowned for their potent lineup, Hunter said it's the defense that has gotten somewhat overlooked.
"We have a great infield, a fast outfield that can run down balls and a pretty good catching crew," Hunter said. "That's what it is. Look at the plays that were made behind me. It happens every time out. I'm just happy to come out and have these guys behind me. It's pretty tough to beat with those guys in there."
FIGGINS FALLOUT IN SEATTLE
If this was Chone Figgins' way of letting the organization know that he wants out of Seattle, consider the message notarized, signed, sealed and delivered. In the fifth inning of Friday night's game against Boston, manager Don Wakamatsu approached Figgins and told him that he was being benched for lack of effort on a play at second base.
Figgins took issue with the decision, confronted his manager, and had to be separated by several teammates in the dugout. In what has been a historically bad season for Seattle, Friday's mess was the boiling point.
Since then, the players and coaches alike have talked about moving on. On Saturday, Figgins sat down with Wakamatsu and general manager Jack Zduriencik to clear the air. Following their sit-down, a closed-door team meeting was held. While nobody has discussed the details of those meetings, the takeaway message had to do with accountability.
"It's more about the play," Wakamatsu told the Seattle Times. "It's not so much about the individual. There's some accountability with, not just (Figgins), but we're asking of everybody. Again, when there's tight ballgames and one or two plays affect the outcome, it seems to be more critical."
The M's went on to win two straight against Boston over the weekend, before Monday's 6-1 loss to Chicago in the opener of a seven-game road swing.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com: NBA Championship Odds
With the playoffs about two months away, the top two teams in the Western Conference are the clear cut leaders to win the NBA Championship. The Dallas Mavericks have the best record in the NBA (44-9) and have been absolutely scorching since the second week of the season. What makes the Mavs’ record more impressive is the fact that they dropped their first four games of the season. Currently they have won 17 out of their last 18 and are MySportsbook.com’s favorite (2-1) to win it all. Right behind the Mavs are the Pacific leading Phoenix Suns (39-13). Last season, the Suns lost in the Conference Finals to non-other then the Mavericks four games to two. Of course the Suns were without center Amare Stoudemire who has is averaging 19.9 PPG and 9.5 RPG since coming back from his knee injury. Unlike the Mavs, the Suns have struggled a bit lately having lost their last three and four out of their last seven. Of course the main reason for their three straight loses is due to the absence of two time MVP Steve Nash, who is out with a shoulder injury. Heads-up, the Mavs have beaten the Suns in both of their meetings this season.
In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons (32-19) are the favorites to win it all at 6-1. The addition of Chris Webber seems to have been a good move for the Pistons. Since coming over from the 76ers, Webber has averaged 13.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG and the Pistons are 11-4. Even though the defending champion Heat are currently on the playoff making cusp, they are the Eastern Conference team that is getting the most action to win it all (9-1). The fact that Shaquille O’Neal is back in the starting lineup after missing 39 games probably has something to do with this. No doubt, Shaq makes a difference when in the lineup as their winning six out of their last seven would indicate.
Just because it is the All-Star break doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on NBA hoops this weekend. Be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com to bet on who you think will cut down the nets this July. Also, be sure to check out all of the lines and props for All-Star weekend. With the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry, there are plenty of ways to cash in on the NBA this weekend.
MySportsbook.com’s NBA Championship odds:
Atlanta Hawks 1000-1
Boston Celtics 5000-1
Charlotte Bobcats 5000-1
Chicago Bulls 20-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 20-1
Dallas Mavericks 2-1
Denver Nuggets 25-1
Detroit Pistons 6-1
Golden State Warriors 250-1
Houston Rockets 12-1
Indiana Pacers 60-1
Los Angeles Clippers 45-1
Memphis Grizzlies 5000-1
Miami Heat 9-1
Milwaukee Bucks 1000-1
Minnesota T-Wolves 200-1
New Jersey Nets 50-1
New Orleans Hornets 150-1
New York Knicks 150-1
Orlando Magic 75-1
Philadelphia 76ers 1000-1
Phoenix Suns 5-2
Portland TrailBlazers 1000-1
Sacramento Kings 250-1
San Antonio Spurs 9-1
Seattle Sonics 5000-1
Toronto Raptors 35-1
Utah Jazz 20-1
Washington Wizards 25-1
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